Since becoming a central banker, I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.
-Alan Greenspan1
Alan Greenspan, arguably the most famous, if not the most influential and controversial chair of the US Federal Reserve, passed away in June 2026 at the age of 100.
It’s rare to be amongst centenarians—only about 0.03% of the US population reaches the mark.2 It’s even rarer to become head of the Fed, with less than 20 folks holding this title since its creation in 1913.
Well, speaking of the Fed, there’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Kevin Warsh.
If Greenspan was known as the Maestro, always tinkering and trying to keep the market guessing, maybe Warsh is the Echo, simplifying things and “echoing” views shared by both “the market” and his former mentor, Stan Druckenmiller.
For all the talk of Warsh being a “hawk,” which in non-animal speak just means someone who is inclined to see interest rates higher rather than lower, Druckenmiller’s view is that Warsh is far more pragmatic and data-driven than that simple label would suggest.3
So while Warsh may think he’s simplifying things, the market has its own interpretation of this alleged pragmatism.
The market already appears to be pricing in higher rates. As of early July, The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a market-based view of future rate expectations, estimated a 70% probability of at least one hike by December and a 33% likelihood of two hikes. Both probabilities were basically zero prior to March.
When interest rates rise, stocks often face headwinds as higher borrowing costs weigh on growth and profits, while bonds and cash become more attractive to investors. That leaves the new Fed chair in a difficult spot, as few presidents have tied their political fortunes as closely to the US stock market as the current president.
The prior Fed chair, Jerome Powell, took a lot of flak from the president for being “too late” on cutting rates, noting in an X post that rates were “TOO HIGH.”
Will the new Fed chair find himself in as much hot water as his predecessor?
If we are to take Warsh at his word that markets “are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers,” then the path of least resistance would be higher, not lower.4
While it’s okay to disagree with your boss, it’s often easier to do so respectfully behind closed doors, rather than in public. This is especially true when your boss is the sitting US President as well as a social media poster extraordinaire, and few things are more public than the current great rates debate.
Until next time.
Subscribe for Fresh Weekly Takes
- Weekly market insights
- Perspectives shaped by 30 years of investing
- Unique institutional-quality insights, now available to individuals
What We’re Reading
For a much better understanding of money and banking, something very few Fed heads will help you with, check out economist Bob Murphy’s 2021 book, Understanding Money Mechanics. From the introduction:
“This book provides the intelligent layperson with a concise yet comprehensive overview of the theory, history, and practice of money and banking, with a focus on the United States. Although the author considers himself an Austrian school economist, most of the material in this book is a neutral presentation of historical facts and an objective description of the mechanics of money creation in today’s world. “
Get your free PDF copy from the Mises Institute here
END NOTES
1“Alan Greenspan.” WikiQuote. 22 June 2026.
2Schaeffer, Katherine. “U.S. Centenarian Population Is Projected to Quadruple Over the Next 30 Years.” Pew Research Center. 9 January 2024.
3Zuckerman, Gregory. “What Kevin Warsh Learned Working for Stanley Druckenmiller.” Wall Street Journal. 2 February 2026.
4Goldfarb, Sam. “Warsh Wants the Fed to Talk Less. That Only Gets Wall Street to Listen Harder.” Wall Street Journal. 30 June 2026.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
The information provided in this document does not constitute investment advice and no investment decision should be made based on it. Neither the information contained in this document or in any accompanying oral presentation is a recommendation to follow any strategy or allocation. In addition, neither is it a recommendation, offer or solicitation to (i) sell or buy any security, (ii) purchase shares in any investment fund that GQG Partners LLC and its affiliates (collectively “GQG”) may sponsor, offer or manage, (iii) establish any separately managed account, or (iv) implement any investment advice. It should not be assumed that any investments made or recommended by GQG in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any securities discussed herein. Before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice, including tax advice, and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the law of your home country, place of residence or current abode.
This document reflects the views of GQG as of a particular time. GQG’s views may change without notice. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary.
GQG provides this information for informational purposes only. GQG has gathered the information in good faith from sources it believes to be reliable, including its own resources and third parties. However, GQG does not represent or warrant that any information, including, without limitation, any past performance results and any third-party information provided, is accurate, reliable or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. GQG has not independently verified any information used or presented that is derived from third parties, which is subject to change. Information on holdings, allocations, and other characteristics is for illustrative purposes only and may not be representative of current or future investments or allocations.
GQG Partners LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of GQG Partners Inc., a Delaware corporation that is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: GQG). GQG Partners LLC and its affiliates provide certain services to each other.
GQG Partners LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Please see its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request, for more information.
© 2026 GQG Partners LLC. All rights reserved. This document reflects the views of GQG as of July 2026.
