WHERE TECH IS NOW
- When it comes to technology, there is a differentiation between software and semiconductors
- We are coming off a trough in semiconductors and particularly in memory and server markets—areas that we believe were under earning
- This area is being turbocharged by the demand coming from AI because AI is almost 5 to 7 times more memory intensive
- This has resulted in a massive consolidation in almost every part of the semiconductor ecosystem
It’s an Evolution, Not a Revolution
Data for the period 01/2020 through 01/2024. Spot pricing for DRAM chips. For the period prior to the release of 16Gb pricing (Spot: May 22 / Contract: Sep 21), used DDR4 8Gb-converted ASP .
Data for the period 01/2020 through 01/2024. Spot pricing for NAND chips. Based on inSpectrum’s NAND Flash 512Gb Index.
not all valuations are created equally
- Despite the fact that NVDA has gone up substantially in recent times, it’s actually cheaper today than it was 3 years ago.
- That holds true for a whole host of names where the earnings growth and revisions have been positive
- Compare and contrast, for instance, with Walmart where the growth rates are by order of magnitude different for almost similar valuations, in our opinion
- The story is still unfolding, but it is being driven by the quality and quantity of earnings growth
MAG 7 OR FAB 5
IS THE EU PAYING ATTENTION?
- Europe is a good example of how we look for changing data points and the data points are pretty clear to us —it is so bad, it’s good
- In our view, the data are beginning to inflect for the better with banking data improving in areas such as loan growth, which to us are early signs of sustainable improvement.
- Despite interest rates going from 0 to 5%, the consumer seems to be holding up fine
- We are seeing clear signs of improvement across a variety of cyclical areas such as industrials and banks
Expectations Rising
OPPOrTUNITY SET IN EMERGING MARKETS REMAINS ATTRACTIVE
- Largely driven by underperformance, positive change across emerging markets has been largely underappreciated in our view
- While GDP growth across EM has grown substantially over nearly 15 years, as a percentage of overall world GDP, EM as a percentage of the MSCI ACWI has fallen
- Contrary to what the consensus may believe, our view is that EM Index weightings are not representative of their overall market capitalization and economic impact
- Instead of a rules based approach that underrepresents EM, a GDP or more economic related one would see EM’s share of world indexes grow, in our opinion
The Index Trend Is Not Your Friend
Source: IMF, Bloomberg. For the periods ending December 2009 and October 2023. You cannot invest directly in an Index.
More Information
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