The reports of my death were an exaggeration.
-Mark Twain1
Few subjects over the last few years—other than AI—have made headlines and captured hearts and waistlines more than GLP-1s.
From celebrities to colleagues, it’s hard to escape the Wegovy and Zepbound craze.
So, what are these magical drugs? From Stanford Medicine:
GLP-1, or glucagon-like peptide-1, is a hormone your body already makes throughout the day. When you eat, it lets all your organs—from your brain to your digestive system—know that you’re full and have a stomach of food ready to be used.2
And what a great thing. The injectable drugs help people lose weight by better regulating overall metabolic function. Many self-reported users report eating smaller portions, choosing higher-quality food, and reducing their alcohol consumption.3
Consumer behavior is changing so drastically that firms such as JPMorgan forecast that $30 to $55 billion in annual sales for the food and beverage industry could be lost as soon as 2030.4
But before we pin every change in food and beverage spending on GLP-1s, it’s worth asking what else is going on. High prices are still one of the biggest reasons consumers are changing how they shop.5
Regardless of the primary reason, it appears that neither price inflation nor GLP-1s have had any impact on World Cup goers, as the sale of hot dogs, beer, and chicken wings has exploded!
Fans are spending big bucks during the World Cup
GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) was up 51% compared to a typical Friday.
Beer sales were 212% higher compared to a typical Friday.
There were 56% more transactions during the World Cup compared to a typical Friday.
Wing sales were up 64% compared to a regular Friday.
Hot dog sales were up 228%.
Game time, especially the end of the match, was busy during the World Cup.
Source details
Data from applicable restaurants and bars on the Toast platform from 24 April 2026 to 19 June 2026.
Maybe it’s just a cheat day. Or a cheat week. Or, if you purchased the “Follow Your Team” package for the World Cup, a cheat month.
Or maybe it’s just the Scots who didn’t get the memo:
It’d be easy to look at statistics and trends and jump to a conclusion. But reality is usually messier than that.
When thinking about any subject, a healthy injection of skepticism should always be warranted, especially when headlines remove all doubt as to whether something is likely to be persistently true.
The world is highly complex: people adapt and companies adapt. So focusing on a single variable, especially without any margin for error, can often lead folks astray. Investing is no different.
When looking at data, don’t get overly fixated on one point or one forecast. Look at the broader pattern and pay attention to where the weight of the evidence points.
Until next time.
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What We’re Reading
Speaking of food, to get a much better understanding of our own metabolic function, no injections required, check out Casey and Calley Means’ book, Good Energy: The Surprising Connection Between Metabolism and Limitless Health.
END NOTES
1Campbell, W Joseph. “Twain’s Famous 1987 Quote: The Back Story.” Media Myth Alert. 1 June 2010.
2Williams, Sarah. “GLP-1s 101: What the Science Says About Weight Loss, Side Effects, Safety.” 29 June 2026.
3Haddon, Heather, and Amira McKee. “GLP-1 Users Are Taking a Bite Out of the Restaurant Business.” Wall Street Journal. 13 May 2026.
4Lucas, Amelia. “GLP-1 Drugs Are Changing How Americans Eat. Food Companies Are Racing to Catch Up.” CNBC. 21 March 2026.
5Houston, Allen. “Rising Costs Are Changing How Americans Dine Out.” YouGov. 24 October 2025.
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