As students of history, we analyze past market downturns to better understand how portfolios might weather similar volatility today. In the current market, we have identified four major systemic risks—similar to those experienced in 1973, 1987, 2000, and 2008—that we believe may be creating the perfect storm for a major market correction.
Listen to Matt Bogdan, CFA, Senior Director, Product Strategy and Analytics, discuss how 2025 appears to bear a striking resemblance to four historical market downturns and explore the potential catalysts that could stress the financial system.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance may vary substantially from year to year or even from month to month. The value of investments can go down as well as up.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a declining financial market.
Views and opinions are expressed as of 31 October 2025.
The information provided in this document does not constitute investment advice and no investment decision should be made based on it. Neither the information contained in this document or in any accompanying oral presentation is a recommendation to follow any strategy or allocation. In addition, neither is it a recommendation, offer or solicitation to (i) sell or buy any security, (ii) purchase shares in any investment fund that GQG Partners LLC and its affiliates (collectively “GQG”) may sponsor, offer or manage, (iii) establish any separately managed account, or (iv) implement any investment advice. It should not be assumed that any investments made or recommended by GQG in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any securities discussed herein. Before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice, including tax advice, and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the law of your home country, place of residence or current abode.
This presentation and video reflects the views of GQG as of a particular time. GQG’s views may change without notice. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary.
GQG provides this information for informational purposes only. GQG has gathered the information in good faith from sources it believes to be reliable, including its own resources and third parties. However, GQG does not represent or warrant that any information, including, without limitation, any past performance results and any third-party information provided, is accurate, reliable or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. GQG has not independently verified any information used or presented that is derived from third parties, which is subject to change. Information on holdings, allocations, and other characteristics is for illustrative purposes only and may not be representative of current or future investments or allocations.
The information contained in this video is unaudited. It is published for the assistance of recipients but is not to be relied upon as authoritative and is not to be substituted for the exercise of one’s own judgment. GQG is not required to update the information contained in these materials, unless otherwise required by applicable law.
No portion of this video may be reproduced, quoted or distributed without the prior written consent of GQG.
Any account or fund advised by GQG involves significant risks and is appropriate only for those persons who can bear the economic risk of the complete loss of their investment. There is no assurance that any account or fund will achieve its investment objectives. Accounts and funds are subject to price volatility and the value of a portfolio will change as the prices of investments go up or down. Before investing in a strategy, you should consider the risks of the strategy as well as whether the strategy is appropriate based upon your investment objectives and risk tolerance. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
GQG Partners LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of GQG Partners Inc., a Delaware corporation that is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: GQG). GQG Partners LLC and its affiliates provide certain services to each other.
GQG Partners LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Please see its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request, for more information.
DEFINITIONS
The S&P 500 Index is a float-adjusted market cap weighted equity index of stocks of 500 leading companies in the United States.
The Nasdaq Index is one of the major stock exchanges in the United States. More than 5,000 domestic and foreign companies are listed with a major focus on technology.
You cannot invest directly in indices, which do not take into account trading commissions and costs.
Private Credit 4 refers to the four largest Private Credit firms: Ares Management, Apollo Global Management, KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.), & Blackstone.
The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio compares a company’s stock price to its revenue per share, with a lower P/S ratio generally indicating a more favorable valuation. It is calculated by dividing the company’s market capitalization by its total revenue over a period, or by dividing the price per share by the revenue per share.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a valuation metric that compares a company’s stock price to its earnings per share (EPS), showing how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It is calculated by dividing the current market price per share by the earnings per share, and it helps investors assess if a stock is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced, especially when compared to its industry peers or its own historical P/E.
FCF, or free cash flow, is the cash a company has left after paying for its operating expenses and capital expenditures (like equipment and buildings). It is a measure of a company’s financial health and shows the cash available to pay dividends, reinvest in the business, or reduce debt. The basic formula is: Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow – Capital Expenditures.
M2 is a broad measure of the money supply that includes all of M1 (physical currency, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits) plus savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits (like CDs under $100,000), and retail money market mutual fund shares. It represents a wider range of assets that can be readily converted into cash and is used by economists to gauge economic liquidity and potential inflation.
Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are investment vehicles that use derivatives and debt to achieve a multiple of the daily returns of an underlying index (e.g., 2x or 3x the daily performance). Their Assets Under Management (AUM) represents the total market value of assets held within these specific funds.
©2025 GQG Partners LLC.
